Clipping Board » Other ─ There is currently no cure for this disease of the country and society...
China Times Electronic News, October 12, 2015
By: Xie Jinfang
Editor's Note: The wave of declining birthrates is crashing down with alarming force! Next year, Taiwanese universities will face the "Year of the Tiger" crisis as the young adult population declines for the first time. By 2020, Taiwan will enter a society with a shrinking population, leading to reduced labor force and taxpayer numbers, impacting the economy and public finances, and further weakening national competitiveness. Meanwhile, under China's one-child policy, declining birthrates and aging are occurring rapidly, with the population expected to peak in 2017 before starting to decline. Starting today, our investigative team will launch a four-part series titled "Tomorrow's Cities—The Crisis of Declining Birthrates," exploring the various impacts of this trend across the strait and seeking potential solutions. (Planning: Zhang Ruichang, Xie Jinfang, Zhang Cuifen)
In early autumn Tokyo, the air carries a slight chill. At 11 p.m., under a light drizzle, a long line still stretches outside the famous Ichiran Ramen. Every seat in this noodle shop is designed for solo diners—from ordering via vending machines to eating and leaving—perfectly catering to the era of solitary living. Taiwan's declining birthrate problem is even more severe than Japan's, and in 20 years, it will follow Japan's path into a society of individuals.
DINKs and Unmarried Lifestyles Accelerate Declining Birthrates
Cheng Jun (pseudonym), a resident of Banqiao, belongs to the latter half of the "fifth-grade" generation. After earning a graduate degree, she married her long-term boyfriend, but 20 years later, they remain a DINK (dual-income, no kids) couple. When friends occasionally ask why they don’t have children, Cheng Jun casually replies, "Life without kids is freer, expenses are lower, and we can travel abroad often!"
With both spouses busy with work, Cheng Jun admits, "After marriage, we never seriously discussed having children, and our parents never pressured us, so we missed the childbearing age." Looking back now, she reflects, "Seeing friends struggle with conflicts over parenting or children born with genetic diseases, and considering Taiwan’s worsening environment—exam-driven education, pollution, and political chaos—I’m glad we didn’t have kids!"
Zhao Ping (pseudonym), a resident of Hsinchu, is from the early "sixth-grade" generation. Her parents fled to Taiwan with the Nationalist government in 1949. As the youngest in her family and an academic achiever, she graduated from National Taiwan University, pursued a Ph.D. in the U.S., and returned to teach at a university. Still single, when asked why she never married, she recalls, "I was a mama’s girl who couldn’t even cook. I never actively prepared for marriage, and I’ve yet to meet the right person, so I’ve learned to live well on my own."
Single-Person Households Become the Norm
According to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taiwan’s total fertility rate last year was just 1.17 (1.17 children per woman), lower than Japan’s. Chen Xiaohong, a Control Yuan member and honorary professor at National Chengchi University, notes, "The trends of late marriage, late childbirth, and choosing not to marry or have children are accelerating the decline in birthrates."
Under the dual pressures of declining birthrates and aging, Japan’s single-person households now outnumber nuclear families. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates that by 2035, solo households will exceed nuclear families by 60%, becoming the dominant household structure.
Japan’s demographic trends serve as a mirror for Taiwan. Chen Xinmu, a sociology professor at National Chengchi University and former chair of the Taiwan Population Association, projects based on 2013 population data that by 2035, conservatively, 40% of Taiwanese women of childbearing age will have no children, and 50% will have no grandchildren. This signals a rise in single-person households, pushing Taiwan toward a society of individuals. Yet, while this shift brings new challenges, it also spawns fresh business opportunities.Half a Century Later: 1.2 Working-Age Adults to Support 1 Elderly
Amid trends of delayed marriage, late childbirth, and increasing rates of singlehood and childlessness, Taiwan's working-age population has been declining since 2016, according to estimates by the National Development Council. By 2020, Taiwan will transition into a shrinking society. Without proactive government intervention, the working-age population will halve by 2061, dropping to just 9.04 million. Currently, an average of 6.2 working-age adults support one elderly person, but in half a century, this ratio will plummet to 1.2 working-age adults per elderly individual, leaving young people facing an "unaffordable future."
A shrinking population means a declining labor force and fewer taxpayers, immediately impacting the economy and public finances. This year, even maintaining 1% economic growth is challenging, and a shrinking workforce will only worsen the situation. Chen Wen-tang, director of the Foresight Center at the Institute for Information Industry, points out, "If population is the sole variable, Taiwan's labor force (aged 19–65) will shrink by 2.65 million by 2035. Without changes in productivity or industrial structure, per capita income will regress to 2010 levels."
**Per Capita Income to Fall Back to 2010 Levels**
Japan became a shrinking society in 2005, while Taiwan will enter this phase by 2020. Chen Wen-tang emphasizes, "Facing a shrinking society requires a major shift in policy thinking. We must make better use of limited national resources to improve people's quality of life. Taiwan must actively enhance value-added productivity and reduce national capital expenditures."
The low birthrate crisis leads to labor shortages, threatening the economy and public finances. In 2010, then-President Ma Ying-jeou called it a "national security issue." Unfortunately, the government has yet to implement national-level countermeasures. Chen Hsiao-hung laments, "Addressing labor shortages is urgent. Beyond encouraging childbirth and facilitating elderly re-employment, immigration is the next critical policy. The government must act, not just talk!"
Source: https:/ / tw. news. yahoo. com/ % E……4% BE% E6% 9C% 83- 215005179. html
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Japan's View on Taiwan: 40% Childless, 50% Grandchildless—A Society of Solitude in 20 Years
By: Xie Jinfang
Editor's Note: The wave of declining birthrates is crashing down with alarming force! Next year, Taiwanese universities will face the "Year of the Tiger" crisis as the young adult population declines for the first time. By 2020, Taiwan will enter a society with a shrinking population, leading to reduced labor force and taxpayer numbers, impacting the economy and public finances, and further weakening national competitiveness. Meanwhile, under China's one-child policy, declining birthrates and aging are occurring rapidly, with the population expected to peak in 2017 before starting to decline. Starting today, our investigative team will launch a four-part series titled "Tomorrow's Cities—The Crisis of Declining Birthrates," exploring the various impacts of this trend across the strait and seeking potential solutions. (Planning: Zhang Ruichang, Xie Jinfang, Zhang Cuifen)
In early autumn Tokyo, the air carries a slight chill. At 11 p.m., under a light drizzle, a long line still stretches outside the famous Ichiran Ramen. Every seat in this noodle shop is designed for solo diners—from ordering via vending machines to eating and leaving—perfectly catering to the era of solitary living. Taiwan's declining birthrate problem is even more severe than Japan's, and in 20 years, it will follow Japan's path into a society of individuals.
DINKs and Unmarried Lifestyles Accelerate Declining Birthrates
Cheng Jun (pseudonym), a resident of Banqiao, belongs to the latter half of the "fifth-grade" generation. After earning a graduate degree, she married her long-term boyfriend, but 20 years later, they remain a DINK (dual-income, no kids) couple. When friends occasionally ask why they don’t have children, Cheng Jun casually replies, "Life without kids is freer, expenses are lower, and we can travel abroad often!"
With both spouses busy with work, Cheng Jun admits, "After marriage, we never seriously discussed having children, and our parents never pressured us, so we missed the childbearing age." Looking back now, she reflects, "Seeing friends struggle with conflicts over parenting or children born with genetic diseases, and considering Taiwan’s worsening environment—exam-driven education, pollution, and political chaos—I’m glad we didn’t have kids!"
Zhao Ping (pseudonym), a resident of Hsinchu, is from the early "sixth-grade" generation. Her parents fled to Taiwan with the Nationalist government in 1949. As the youngest in her family and an academic achiever, she graduated from National Taiwan University, pursued a Ph.D. in the U.S., and returned to teach at a university. Still single, when asked why she never married, she recalls, "I was a mama’s girl who couldn’t even cook. I never actively prepared for marriage, and I’ve yet to meet the right person, so I’ve learned to live well on my own."
Single-Person Households Become the Norm
According to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taiwan’s total fertility rate last year was just 1.17 (1.17 children per woman), lower than Japan’s. Chen Xiaohong, a Control Yuan member and honorary professor at National Chengchi University, notes, "The trends of late marriage, late childbirth, and choosing not to marry or have children are accelerating the decline in birthrates."
Under the dual pressures of declining birthrates and aging, Japan’s single-person households now outnumber nuclear families. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates that by 2035, solo households will exceed nuclear families by 60%, becoming the dominant household structure.
Japan’s demographic trends serve as a mirror for Taiwan. Chen Xinmu, a sociology professor at National Chengchi University and former chair of the Taiwan Population Association, projects based on 2013 population data that by 2035, conservatively, 40% of Taiwanese women of childbearing age will have no children, and 50% will have no grandchildren. This signals a rise in single-person households, pushing Taiwan toward a society of individuals. Yet, while this shift brings new challenges, it also spawns fresh business opportunities.Half a Century Later: 1.2 Working-Age Adults to Support 1 Elderly
Amid trends of delayed marriage, late childbirth, and increasing rates of singlehood and childlessness, Taiwan's working-age population has been declining since 2016, according to estimates by the National Development Council. By 2020, Taiwan will transition into a shrinking society. Without proactive government intervention, the working-age population will halve by 2061, dropping to just 9.04 million. Currently, an average of 6.2 working-age adults support one elderly person, but in half a century, this ratio will plummet to 1.2 working-age adults per elderly individual, leaving young people facing an "unaffordable future."
A shrinking population means a declining labor force and fewer taxpayers, immediately impacting the economy and public finances. This year, even maintaining 1% economic growth is challenging, and a shrinking workforce will only worsen the situation. Chen Wen-tang, director of the Foresight Center at the Institute for Information Industry, points out, "If population is the sole variable, Taiwan's labor force (aged 19–65) will shrink by 2.65 million by 2035. Without changes in productivity or industrial structure, per capita income will regress to 2010 levels."
**Per Capita Income to Fall Back to 2010 Levels**
Japan became a shrinking society in 2005, while Taiwan will enter this phase by 2020. Chen Wen-tang emphasizes, "Facing a shrinking society requires a major shift in policy thinking. We must make better use of limited national resources to improve people's quality of life. Taiwan must actively enhance value-added productivity and reduce national capital expenditures."
The low birthrate crisis leads to labor shortages, threatening the economy and public finances. In 2010, then-President Ma Ying-jeou called it a "national security issue." Unfortunately, the government has yet to implement national-level countermeasures. Chen Hsiao-hung laments, "Addressing labor shortages is urgent. Beyond encouraging childbirth and facilitating elderly re-employment, immigration is the next critical policy. The government must act, not just talk!"
Source: https:/ / tw. news. yahoo. com/ % E……4% BE% E6% 9C% 83- 215005179. html