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Update Date: 2008/08/18 19:45 Chen Lin Xinghong
The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) announced a biennial population projection report on the 18th. Due to government policy coordination, the CEPD believes that Taiwan's fertility rate has not declined for three years. Therefore, the original prediction two years ago that Taiwan's population would begin to decline in 2019 has now been extended to 2027, an eight-year delay from the original estimate.
According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan's total fertility rate has significantly declined over the past decade. In 2007, the total fertility number was only 1.1, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population levels.
Two years ago, the CEPD released a population projection estimating that Taiwan's population would start to decline from 2019, meaning the total population would begin to decrease from a peak of 23.23 million, marking the beginning of a negative population growth era for Taiwan. On the 18th, the CEPD released a new wave of predictions, stating that Taiwan's fertility rate has not declined for three years. Therefore, the original prediction two years ago that Taiwan's population would begin to decline in 2019 has now been extended to 2027, an eight-year delay from the original estimate. Wang Ling, head of the Human Resources Planning Division at the CEPD, said: "If our government implements more policies, the 1.1 rate will slowly rise. Achieving 1.4 is our medium projection, 1.6 is our high projection, and 1.75 is our challenge. One day, reaching 2.1 will be our vision, meaning we will have a bell-shaped population structure."
Although the onset of negative population growth has been delayed, the CEPD also issued a warning. Taiwan will transition from an aging country to an aged society in nine years. Currently, there are about seven working-age people (15-64 years old) supporting one elderly person (65 years and older) in Taiwan. In 18 years, this will change to 3.2 people supporting one elderly person. If this trend continues, in 48 years, it will drastically reduce to 1.4 people supporting one elderly person.
Source: http:/ / tw. news. yahoo. com/ art……url/ d/ a/ 080818/ 58/ 14c4x. html
NEPC: Taiwan's Population Decline Extended to 2027
The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) announced a biennial population projection report on the 18th. Due to government policy coordination, the CEPD believes that Taiwan's fertility rate has not declined for three years. Therefore, the original prediction two years ago that Taiwan's population would begin to decline in 2019 has now been extended to 2027, an eight-year delay from the original estimate.
According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan's total fertility rate has significantly declined over the past decade. In 2007, the total fertility number was only 1.1, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population levels.
Two years ago, the CEPD released a population projection estimating that Taiwan's population would start to decline from 2019, meaning the total population would begin to decrease from a peak of 23.23 million, marking the beginning of a negative population growth era for Taiwan. On the 18th, the CEPD released a new wave of predictions, stating that Taiwan's fertility rate has not declined for three years. Therefore, the original prediction two years ago that Taiwan's population would begin to decline in 2019 has now been extended to 2027, an eight-year delay from the original estimate. Wang Ling, head of the Human Resources Planning Division at the CEPD, said: "If our government implements more policies, the 1.1 rate will slowly rise. Achieving 1.4 is our medium projection, 1.6 is our high projection, and 1.75 is our challenge. One day, reaching 2.1 will be our vision, meaning we will have a bell-shaped population structure."
Although the onset of negative population growth has been delayed, the CEPD also issued a warning. Taiwan will transition from an aging country to an aged society in nine years. Currently, there are about seven working-age people (15-64 years old) supporting one elderly person (65 years and older) in Taiwan. In 18 years, this will change to 3.2 people supporting one elderly person. If this trend continues, in 48 years, it will drastically reduce to 1.4 people supporting one elderly person.
Source: http:/ / tw. news. yahoo. com/ art……url/ d/ a/ 080818/ 58/ 14c4x. html