Clipping Board » Other ─ There is currently no cure for this disease of the country and society...
Update Date: 2010/08/17 04:11 [Reporter Chen Meiying / Taipei Report]
Taiwan has the lowest fertility rate in the world, and this year's total fertility rate is expected to drop below one person. Under these circumstances, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) has revised its estimate for the onset of Taiwan's population decline, moving it four years earlier than the projection made two years ago. Taiwan's total population is expected to peak in 12 years, reaching 23.44 million in 2022, after which it will begin to decline.
This Year's Total Fertility Rate Estimated to Drop to 0.94
Although modern life expectancy has increased, the aging population is growing. Thirty years from now, the annual number of deaths will approach 300,000, and by 2060, deaths are projected to reach 340,000—more than double the current figure. With the persistently low total fertility rate, the crude birth rate and crude death rate are expected to intersect in 2017, bringing natural population growth close to zero. After that, as the crude birth rate fails to keep up with the rising crude death rate, Taiwan's total population will peak in 2022 and then enter negative growth.
The CEPD conducts population projections every two years based on assumptions about birth rates, death rates, and migration. Due to Taiwan's declining total fertility rate—the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime—which was 1.03 last year, and the impact of the Year of the Tiger and fewer marriages in the previous "lonely phoenix year," this year's total fertility rate is projected to drop to 0.94, becoming the most significant variable in this population projection.
As a result, the CEPD has lowered its medium fertility rate assumption, adjusting Taiwan's total fertility rate 50 years from now from 1.4 (in the previous projection) to 1.3. This adjustment moves the onset of population decline from the previously estimated 2026 to 2023—a full four years earlier. Under a low fertility rate assumption of just 0.8, Taiwan's population decline would occur even sooner, starting in 2019.
In fact, based on the medium fertility rate assumption, Taiwan's births and deaths will both approach 167,000 in 2017, bringing natural population growth close to zero. However, due to immigration of foreign spouses, the social population will still show an increase, delaying the peak of Taiwan's population growth until 2022.
University Enrollment Population to Drop by 43% in 20 Years
Chen Shih-chang, Director of the CEPD's Human Resources Planning Division, pointed out that while most countries undergo demographic adjustments over about 50 years, Taiwan's problem lies in the speed of this adjustment—occurring in just half the time. This rapid shift will lead to three major issues that policymakers must address early.
First is the problem of underutilized education systems. According to projections, the junior high school enrollment population will drop from 267,000 this year to 189,000 in 10 years—a decline of about 30%. In 20 years, university enrollment will plummet by 43%, from the current 319,000 to just 181,000.
Second is the issue of a shrinking workforce. Currently, the working-age population (15–64 years old) accounts for 73.6% of the total. After peaking at 74.4% in 2015, it will begin to decline, dropping below 50% by 2060. This will impact national competitiveness and economic growth.
2017: Entering an Aged Society
Additionally, the growing elderly population will increase demand for long-term care. This year, Taiwan's population aged 65 and above accounts for about 11% of the total. By 2017, this will rise to 14%, meeting the international definition of an "aged society." By 2025, it will reach 20%, entering a "super-aged society." Fifty years from now, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will soar to 42%.Amid the trend of declining birth rates and increasing human lifespans, the Council for Economic Planning and Development estimates that Taiwan's current "demographic dividend" period—where roughly three people support one person, resulting in a lighter burden—will end by 2027. Fifty years later, Taiwan's total dependency ratio will reach 104%, meaning one person will have to support more than one individual.
Source: http:/ / tw. news. yahoo. com/ art……url/ d/ a/ 100817/ 78/ 2b8jg. html
Too Few Births: Population Decline in 2023
Taiwan has the lowest fertility rate in the world, and this year's total fertility rate is expected to drop below one person. Under these circumstances, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) has revised its estimate for the onset of Taiwan's population decline, moving it four years earlier than the projection made two years ago. Taiwan's total population is expected to peak in 12 years, reaching 23.44 million in 2022, after which it will begin to decline.
This Year's Total Fertility Rate Estimated to Drop to 0.94
Although modern life expectancy has increased, the aging population is growing. Thirty years from now, the annual number of deaths will approach 300,000, and by 2060, deaths are projected to reach 340,000—more than double the current figure. With the persistently low total fertility rate, the crude birth rate and crude death rate are expected to intersect in 2017, bringing natural population growth close to zero. After that, as the crude birth rate fails to keep up with the rising crude death rate, Taiwan's total population will peak in 2022 and then enter negative growth.
The CEPD conducts population projections every two years based on assumptions about birth rates, death rates, and migration. Due to Taiwan's declining total fertility rate—the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime—which was 1.03 last year, and the impact of the Year of the Tiger and fewer marriages in the previous "lonely phoenix year," this year's total fertility rate is projected to drop to 0.94, becoming the most significant variable in this population projection.
As a result, the CEPD has lowered its medium fertility rate assumption, adjusting Taiwan's total fertility rate 50 years from now from 1.4 (in the previous projection) to 1.3. This adjustment moves the onset of population decline from the previously estimated 2026 to 2023—a full four years earlier. Under a low fertility rate assumption of just 0.8, Taiwan's population decline would occur even sooner, starting in 2019.
In fact, based on the medium fertility rate assumption, Taiwan's births and deaths will both approach 167,000 in 2017, bringing natural population growth close to zero. However, due to immigration of foreign spouses, the social population will still show an increase, delaying the peak of Taiwan's population growth until 2022.
University Enrollment Population to Drop by 43% in 20 Years
Chen Shih-chang, Director of the CEPD's Human Resources Planning Division, pointed out that while most countries undergo demographic adjustments over about 50 years, Taiwan's problem lies in the speed of this adjustment—occurring in just half the time. This rapid shift will lead to three major issues that policymakers must address early.
First is the problem of underutilized education systems. According to projections, the junior high school enrollment population will drop from 267,000 this year to 189,000 in 10 years—a decline of about 30%. In 20 years, university enrollment will plummet by 43%, from the current 319,000 to just 181,000.
Second is the issue of a shrinking workforce. Currently, the working-age population (15–64 years old) accounts for 73.6% of the total. After peaking at 74.4% in 2015, it will begin to decline, dropping below 50% by 2060. This will impact national competitiveness and economic growth.
2017: Entering an Aged Society
Additionally, the growing elderly population will increase demand for long-term care. This year, Taiwan's population aged 65 and above accounts for about 11% of the total. By 2017, this will rise to 14%, meeting the international definition of an "aged society." By 2025, it will reach 20%, entering a "super-aged society." Fifty years from now, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will soar to 42%.Amid the trend of declining birth rates and increasing human lifespans, the Council for Economic Planning and Development estimates that Taiwan's current "demographic dividend" period—where roughly three people support one person, resulting in a lighter burden—will end by 2027. Fifty years later, Taiwan's total dependency ratio will reach 104%, meaning one person will have to support more than one individual.
Source: http:/ / tw. news. yahoo. com/ art……url/ d/ a/ 100817/ 78/ 2b8jg. html