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Filing Date: 2015/05/25
Assessment Project for the Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Practitioners
Data Source: Department of Medical Affairs, Ministry of Health and Welfare
Principal Investigator: Xiong Zhao
We utilized the National Health Insurance database and the registry data of medical personnel to estimate the supply of TCM practitioners from 2012 to 2021 using a manpower inventory model. Additionally, we projected the demand for TCM practitioners during the same period by modeling the manpower needs of TCM medical institutions based on the volume of TCM services.
Under the current conditions of known enrollment numbers in TCM programs and the existing job market for TCM practitioners, the study yielded the following projections: On the supply side, by the end of 2021, there will be 7,303 practicing TCM practitioners, with an average annual net increase of 176 practitioners over the decade, representing an annual growth rate of 2.8%.
A sensitivity analysis of factors affecting manpower supply revealed that the most significant impact comes from TCM practitioners exiting the profession, followed by the rate at which graduates of eight-year TCM programs choose to practice as TCM practitioners. The least impactful factor was practitioners returning to the workforce. On the demand side, TCM services were categorized into non-acupuncture/traumatology services and acupuncture/traumatology services. Assuming no changes in population structure, healthcare utilization rates, or the manpower demand function of medical institutions, the projected demand for TCM practitioners in 2021 is estimated at 514 in hospital-affiliated TCM departments, 50 in TCM hospitals, and 5,374 in TCM clinics, totaling 5,938 practitioners. This figure is 1,365 lower than the projected supply for 2021. The disparity between supply and demand indicates that the future TCM practitioner job market will face a state of oversupply, with the gap widening by approximately 100 practitioners annually .
If fluctuations in the parameters for supply or demand projections are considered, allowing for a simultaneous ±10% variation, the gap between supply and demand in 2021 could range from 502 to 2,210 practitioners. Over the period from 2012 to 2021, the average annual increase in the supply-demand gap would range between 65 and 133 practitioners.
Although the special examination for TCM practitioners has been discontinued, graduates from two newly established post-baccalaureate TCM programs will soon enter the job market. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that efforts to balance future supply and demand for TCM practitioners focus on controlling or reducing the total enrollment in TCM and post-baccalaureate TCM programs. The data suggests that reducing annual admissions by 65 to 133 students could help achieve this balance. Furthermore, the imbalance in manpower may be mitigated by potential expansions in TCM service demand, such as the introduction of TCM inpatient services, integrated Chinese-Western medical care models, and the promotion of TCM in long-term care. Revisions to hospital establishment/accreditation standards and changes in National Health Insurance reimbursement policies may also influence the overall demand for TCM practitioners in the future.
Ministry of Health and Welfare
TCM Practitioner Workforce Development Assessment Project
Assessment Project for the Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Practitioners
Data Source: Department of Medical Affairs, Ministry of Health and Welfare
Principal Investigator: Xiong Zhao
We utilized the National Health Insurance database and the registry data of medical personnel to estimate the supply of TCM practitioners from 2012 to 2021 using a manpower inventory model. Additionally, we projected the demand for TCM practitioners during the same period by modeling the manpower needs of TCM medical institutions based on the volume of TCM services.
Under the current conditions of known enrollment numbers in TCM programs and the existing job market for TCM practitioners, the study yielded the following projections: On the supply side, by the end of 2021, there will be 7,303 practicing TCM practitioners, with an average annual net increase of 176 practitioners over the decade, representing an annual growth rate of 2.8%.
A sensitivity analysis of factors affecting manpower supply revealed that the most significant impact comes from TCM practitioners exiting the profession, followed by the rate at which graduates of eight-year TCM programs choose to practice as TCM practitioners. The least impactful factor was practitioners returning to the workforce. On the demand side, TCM services were categorized into non-acupuncture/traumatology services and acupuncture/traumatology services. Assuming no changes in population structure, healthcare utilization rates, or the manpower demand function of medical institutions, the projected demand for TCM practitioners in 2021 is estimated at 514 in hospital-affiliated TCM departments, 50 in TCM hospitals, and 5,374 in TCM clinics, totaling 5,938 practitioners. This figure is 1,365 lower than the projected supply for 2021. The disparity between supply and demand indicates that the future TCM practitioner job market will face a state of oversupply, with the gap widening by approximately 100 practitioners annually .
If fluctuations in the parameters for supply or demand projections are considered, allowing for a simultaneous ±10% variation, the gap between supply and demand in 2021 could range from 502 to 2,210 practitioners. Over the period from 2012 to 2021, the average annual increase in the supply-demand gap would range between 65 and 133 practitioners.
Although the special examination for TCM practitioners has been discontinued, graduates from two newly established post-baccalaureate TCM programs will soon enter the job market. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that efforts to balance future supply and demand for TCM practitioners focus on controlling or reducing the total enrollment in TCM and post-baccalaureate TCM programs. The data suggests that reducing annual admissions by 65 to 133 students could help achieve this balance. Furthermore, the imbalance in manpower may be mitigated by potential expansions in TCM service demand, such as the introduction of TCM inpatient services, integrated Chinese-Western medical care models, and the promotion of TCM in long-term care. Revisions to hospital establishment/accreditation standards and changes in National Health Insurance reimbursement policies may also influence the overall demand for TCM practitioners in the future.
Ministry of Health and Welfare